A poll released by a Winnipeg firm today shows the Green Party in the first two weeks of the campaign had already blown by the NDP, and is in contention to win the seat in Guelph. Since then the Green Party has increased our identified support in Guelph by more than 50%!
Party . . . . . . .. . . . 2008 . . . . . . . . 2006 . . . . . . . . .%
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Poll . . . . . . . .Result. . . . . . .Difference
Liberals . . . . . . . .36.60%. . . . . . .38.39%. . . . . . . -4.66%
Conservatives . . .26.35%. . . . . . .29.75% . . . . . . -11.43%
Green . . . . . . . . .19.22%. . . . . . . .8.72%. . . . . . .+120.4%
NDP . . . . . . . . . . .17.77%. . . . . . .22.00%. . . . . . .-19.23%
The poll was taken by a Winnipeg firm you can see it at http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/August2008/20/c5497.html. . The poll was taken on July 27 and August 13.
Here’s the great news:
1) Support for all the old-line, traditional parties has fallen, while Green Party support has risen by more than 120%!!
2) The Green Party has held onto all its' support from the Ontario provincial election where we won almost 10,000 votes and 19.5% of the vote.
3) Despite having a “star” candidate and spending almost $300,000 in the riding (a rumoured more than $80,000 pre-writ, plus $91,000 campaign plus $91,000 from NDP head office) the NDP is in fourth place -- and has lost almost 20% of its support from 2006.
So the really big news from this poll is that the Guelph Green campaign have blown by the NDP.
4) The poll was done early in the election campaign (July 27 for half the sample and August 13 for the other half -- so the "average" would be August 4 -- which is more than two weeks old. At this time the Green Party campaign was still ramping up.
For instance, the Green Party's first piece of literature to every household only went out on August 8 -- so half results are based on a time when voters hadn't received anything from the Greens. By contrast, the other parties collectively spend hundreds of thousands before the election was called on print and radio ads, dropped literature to all households, held free public BBQs in the park, had their party leader drop by numerous times, etc.
After the poll was conducted, we increased our identified support in Guelph by 25% in a single weekend!! And by election day our identified support will have more than doubled from where it was at the time the poll was conducted!!
We are now well ahead of where this poll put us two weeks ago.
But what's really important to note is that the Greens as of two weeks ago had already erased any advantage the NDP had of spending $100,000 pre-writ and having a star candidate.
5) Most important of all: none of the returning students (2nd, 3rd and 4th year) were included in this poll. The Green Party won the majority of polls on campus in the London North Centre by-election.
6) The big MO. The campaign to elect Mike Nagy has the momentum over all the old-line political parties. Green Party support from 2006 is up more than 120%.
If you ever wonder which campaign is the coolest, most fun, watch this at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6fn0A0Qq34
7) It’s all going to come down to Getting Out the Vote. Every pollster I have talked to recognizes that getting out the vote is going to determine who wins this by-election. And here’s the great news: The Green Party is going to have the biggest, the best GOTV effort in Green Party history!
8) I believe the Conservative support in this poll is overstated. In our canvassing door to door we have been finding that many of the electors who formerly identified themselves as Conservative saying that they are now undecided. Gary Brown found four in a single poll last weekend. They are upset that Harper fired the locally, democratically nominated candidate Brent Barr (he was the Conservative candidate in the 2006 election).
In canvassing we have has found a large number of former Progressive Conservative voters who are upset over this have decided to vote Green. I don't feel this trend was caught in this poll.
The Conservatives aren't going to win this riding for a few reasons:
a) When the riding went blue pre-1993 when the riding boundaries were different. The riding was part urban and part rural. It was the rural parts that voted blue. The riding boundaries were re-defined and now is entirely urban. The riding even had a different name when it was blue -- Guelph-Wellington. So it's an entirely different riding than it was when it was held by Conservatives.
b) When it was blue -- the riding was held by Progressive Conservatives. Mr. Harper is working to eliminate all references and actions from being progressive.
c) Having Conservative HQ fired Brent Barr.
9) The Liberal support continues to fall significantly -- from 48.2% in 2000 to 44.6% in 2004 to 38.4% in 2006 to 36.5% in this poll in 2008.
10) While I have some questions about the poll – such as understanding how undecided voters were factored in, this is great news for the Green Party showing that in the first two weeks of the campaign before our big marketing efforts, we had already surpassed the NDP, and were hot on the heels of the Conservatives!!
Closing clarifications & Comments:
The Guelph Greens or Green Party of Canada did not pay for this poll. I talked with the pollster, Allan Bruinooge, and learned no one had commissioned the poll, he conducted it on his own.
This poll is really, really good news for the Green Party.
It’s really, really bad news for the NDP.
It’s also bad news for the Conservatives. Allan Bruinooge is the brother of a Conservative MP – so if he says the Conservatives are 10% behind the Liberals as of two weeks ago it must be true.
It’s also bad news for the Liberals because their support continues to fall from more than 48% in 2000 to 36% as of two weeks ago.
So here’s the path to a Green Party win. We only have to switch 4.5% of the support from each of the other parties to vote Green this once.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Poll
Liberals . . . . . . . .36.60%
Conservatives . . .26.35%
Green . . . . . . . . .19.22%
NDP . . . . . . . . . . .17.77%
As of two weeks ago we only had to switch
· 4.5% of soft Liberal support to Greens – so Liberals would fall to 32.1% while the Greens rise to 23.72%
· another 4.5% of soft NDP support to the Green Party – so the Greens rise to 28.22% (23.72 + 4.5%) while the NDP fall to 13.27% where they were in the provincial
· 4.5% of Conservative support to Green – so the Greens rise to 32.72% (28.22% + 4.5%) while the Conservatives fall to 22.35%.
We have already been doing this for the last two weeks in our door to door canvassing.
But we still need to continue pushing hard to win this riding. Here are five ways you can help:
1) Move to Guelph for the remainder or a portion of the campaign. Greens from all across Canada have come. GPO Deputy Leader Judy Smith Torrie moved to Guelph for a week. Jason Hammond had moved to Guelph for the entire campaign. GPO Deputy Leader Shane Jolley is coming for the last week of the campaign. Louis Betrand from Durham is in Guelph this week. The local Greens will find you a billet to stay at – and there’s food every day in the office. Be part of this most exciting campaign. If you're coming let Martin Lavictoire mlavicto@yahoo.ca (519) 362-8872 know.
2) Come to Guelph for a weekend or a few weekdays. The campaign office is 73 Gordon St (corner of Gordon and Wellington) phone # (519) 820-6899.
http://maps.google.ca/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=73+gordon+st,+guelph&sll.... Socialize Friday and Saturday night – and campaign in the day. The Guelph Greens will find you a place to stay. Let Martin Lavictoire mlavicto@yahoo.ca (519) 362-8872 know you’re coming.
3) Canvass from home by phone. Use the Virtual Phone Bank (called GRIMES) this amazing system lets Greens all across Canada win our first seat. This is key. More than 2,000 calls have already been made by a team of 16 people. But if we had a few hundred Greens making calls we could easily reach 10 times more Guelph electors. It’s easy and fun to canvass by phone. Voters need to talk to someone from the party to convince them a) why it’s important to vote Green; b) dispel some of the myth the other parties are spreading about us. Call Mark Kersten 613 422 4515 mark.kersten@greenparty.ca or at the campaign office at (519) 820-6899.
4) Donate. This is going to be the biggest spending campaign in Green Party history – the maximum is $91,000. We have already raised more than $50,000 but have another $40,000 to go. To help out call (519) 820-6899 and make a donation by credit card. Of course you'll receive 75% of your donation off your federal taxes payable of any donation up to $400.
Alternatively, you can send a cheque made out to Tara Treanor, Official Agent for the Mike Nagy Campaign and mail it to:
The Mike Nagy Campaign Office
73 Gordon Street
Guelph, Ontario N1H 4H5
5) Support Mike's campaign on Facebook at http://www.new.facebook.com/pages/Mike-Nagy/13661623451?ref=s by signing up as a supporter.
Winning the by-election will have a major impact:
· The Reform Party jumped from no seats in 1988 to 52 seats in 1993 – for one simple reason. The party won a by-election in between and with one seat, Preston manning was included in the TV leaders debate and Reform’s vote jumped from 275,000 (1988) to 2,500,000 (1993). We can experience the same explosive type of growth if we win Guelph.
· Being in the TV leaders debate would give $10 million of media coverage to the issues we feel are so important and not being properly addressed. In the 2006 election in six hours of leaders debates – climate change, the war in Afghanistan were not even debated!!! Now the parties are telling us they're concerned about these!
Here are a few blogs you may want to read:
Tip of Iceberg, Tipping Point & Power of Green Party -- Shifting Politics http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6589
Coolest Green Video Ever!!! Groove in Guelph http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6550
Guelph Going Green a Golden Opportunity: Guelph Mercury opinion piece http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6548
By-elections called for Sept 8! Guelph’s Going Green!! http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6201