on September 8 Guelph residents will go to the polls and elect the first ever Green MP.
The Guelph by-election is the first race where we have enough support before the election is called to win the seat! Greens all across Canada can help win the first seat by canvassing remotely using the Virtual Phone Bank. If you live in South Western Ontario come to Guelph to canvass!
Come canvass any weekday or weekend! This past weekend we identified more than 500 Green supporters. Canvassing is key to winning our first riding!
Greens Can Win the Guelph By-election
• In 2007 in the Ontario provincial election, the Green Party won 9,635 votes – or 19.5% of the vote for a third place finish. Ben Polley’s campaign spent less than $29,000. And won almost 3,000 votes more than the NDP and was hot on the heels of the Conservative.
• By-elections have the lowest voter turn out, and summer by-elections are the worst turn outs of any elections. The good news is that they also have the lowest threshold to win. Only 27.9% of electors voted in the four March 17 by-elections. Summer by-election turn outs have even lower turn out – as 22.9%! In the 2006 federal election there were 87,410 electors in Guelph. If voter turn out is 27.9% again as it was in the March 17 by-elections, some 24,387 electors will vote in the by-election. If we get out to vote all the electors who voted Green just eight months ago – we just won our first seat!
• So here’s the amazing news: if we identify and get out to vote everyone who has already voted Green and we just won our first riding! This is the first election ever where we have had enough support before the election is called to win the seat.
• Guelph Greens are one of the, if not the strongest, most organized Green teams in Canada!
• The riding is unlikely to elect a Conservative for a few reasons: 1) it’s been a Liberal who has held the riding since 1993, and by significant margins; 2) when it was represented by Conservatives the riding boundaries were significantly different – and the riding was known as Guelph-Wellington and half of it was rural (now it is all urban); 3) when the riding did vote blue more than 15 years ago it was red/blue Progressive Conservatives; 4) The Conservatives are deeply divided over the Conservative head office dumping the nominated candidate Brent Barr who was the party’s 2006 federal candidate. Barr’s called it an “abuse of power” Barr. This created a lot of bad blood. When the Prime Minister meddles in local affairs it doesn’t look very good. The Conservatives lost members over this.
• The riding is unlikely to elect a NDP for a few reasons: 1) the NDP has never elected anyone federally in the riding; 2) in the October 10, 2007 provincial election the Green Party beat the NDP by about 3,000 votes; 3) the Green Party is polling ahead of the NDP in some regions in Ontario and tied across the whole province – see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3149#comment-5340
• That leaves only the Liberals and the Greens and only sending a Green member to parliament will make any difference. Liberal support has been falling consistently from 49% in 2000 to 44% in 2004 to 38% in 2006. Liberal support has plummeted by almost 25% (11% drop is almost one quarter of 49%). By contrast Green party support exploded to 20% in the Ontario provincial election.
• Known as the “Bell-Wether Riding” the riding of Guelph has historically shown that it’s willing to switch between parties. Guelph has gone Liberal and Conservative federally and gone red, blue and orange provincially over the last 20 years.
7 Reasons the Guelph By-election is so Special
1. Winning this by-election will guarantee that Elizabeth will be included in the televised leaders debates. 80% of Ontario voters believe Elizabeth should be included in the televised leaders debates.
2. By-elections are Special. Electing one more backbench Liberal won’t change anything. Electing one more backbench Conservative won’t change anything. Electing one more backbench NDP won’t change anything. But electing the first green will change everything.
3. Winning will turn Canada Green! In the 1988 federal election the Reform Party didn’t win any seats and then in the 1993 election the party won 52 seats – missing becoming the official opposition by just two seats! What happened? One simple thing. In between the two elections Deb Grey won the first Reform seat in a by-election – and then Preston was included in the televised leaders debates and the party jumped from winning 275,000 votes to 2.5 million – an almost 10 fold increase. That’s the difference winning a single by-election can make.
4. I predict that the Guelph campaign will break at least five Green Party records:
o Highest ever election spending – pre and post writ
o Most number of volunteers and volunteer hours
o Most Canvassing ever
o Most phone canvassing ever
o Best campaign ever
5. It will serve as a campaign school for all campaign teams which can use the Virtual Phone Bank (GRIMES) to identify Green supporters by phone using Skype (free) or for Southern Ontario ridings – on door to door canvassing. The by-election offers a perfect dry run for the pending federal campaign.
6. In the London North Centre campaign we began from a complete standstill. There was no campaign team, no strategy, no fundraising, no budgeting in place before the election was called. In the case of Guelph the team has been preparing for months. People have already made commitments that make it the second largest Green Party campaign ever in terms of campaigning time!
7. 58% of Canadians want to see at least one MP in the House of Commons. With the environment as the #1 issue for Canadians for the last two and a half years this is a historic opportunity.
4 Ways You can Help:
1. Canvass this Saturday. Volunteers who can come to Guelph for this Saturday canvass. Organize a car load/mini van /bus of Greens to come to Guelph for canvassing this Saturday July 5. We have to canvass every residence in the riding. Be part of making history!!! Contact: Martin Lavictoire, Coordinator – Out-of-Town Volunteers at mlavicto@yahoo.ca or call (519) 826-6114 or call the campaign office at (519) 820-6899.
2. Campaign From Afar: Get involved in the Virtual Phone Bank – which allows you to make calls into Guelph using Skype (which is free) or your unlimited long distance and identify Green Party support. All you need is an Internet connection. Even if you only have a half hour for free one day calling makes a huge difference. To get involved contact: Mark Kersten, Telephone Canvass Co-ordinator – at mark.kersten@greenparty.ca or call the campaign office at (519) 820-6899.
3. Blog & Email. Email all your friends and contacts to get them involved on Saturday July 5. Blog about this yourself and link to this blog at
4. Telephone everyone you know in Guelph and the surrounding area – friends, family, former neighbours, and ask them to help out, get involved, volunteer. Ask them to support Mike Nagy and the Guelph Greens. We need a Green voice in Parliament now more than ever. so please phone or email and share a personal appeal for them to get involved and help in this by-election. To speak up for the 664,000 Canadians who voted Green in 2006 and didn’t get a voice in the House of Commons. Ask them to help all Canadians ensure a focus in the next federal election on the issues ignored in the 2006 election – climate change, fish depletion in our global oceans, Afghanistan, poverty and the need to invest in a Green economy and a long term plan for healthier communities. A word of mouth campaign from friends could really help!
Want to make history? Help win our first seat! Then take action! Get involved. Volunteer. Canvass. Join. Blog. Email friends. Come to Guelph.
The Campaign that WILL elect Mike Nagy
Campaign office (519) 820-6899
Official Mike Nagy website www.mikenagy.ca