Hope Fading

There were some brave speeches, claiming there is still a chance of a legally binding and transparent agreement in Copenhagen.  But it is increasingly hard to believe them.

Gordon Brown has tried to save the negotiation. He said that Copenhagen will be "blessed or blamed" by future generations. He argued against narrow self-interest. The only new bid was more money - starting at $10 billion/year working to $100 billion/ year.


HiIlary Clinton repeated the US target.  -17% below 2005 by 2020…but she topped it up with the US goal to jointly mobilize $100 billion/year by 2020 - from public and private sources....(Same target as Gordon Brown). What this amounts to is a pledge to find or raise the money.

Chancellor Angela Merkel was correct, speaking from Germany before headed to COP15, noting that the US target was not "ambitious."

And she is right.  The US should offer to reduce emissions more rapidly, but it does not seem likely.  The health care crisis and that legislation in the US Congress has impacted this meeting, with US Senators who had planned attend COP15, have stayed in Washington.  The Waxman Markey bill is linked in terms of political priorities. It has not passed, but it is also not good enough.  It means Barack Obama comes here without the key ingredient to unlock the deadlock and save these negotiations. A 20% cut against 1990 levels by 2020 would be enough (I think) to get China to agree to leveling off emissions and other pieces would fall in place.  But it is late, with President Obama coming tomorrow, and Hillary Clinton repeating today what everyone had heard of the US target, only offering more money, it is unlikely Obama will bring anything new.  Of course, he still could. And others could do more as well.  But at this writing the police repressive tactics, the unbelievable exclusion of NGOs from the negotiations, the combination of arrogance and incompetence from the Danish government have all contributed to a sense of inevitability about looming failure.